اثر ناپایداری قیمت نان برامنیت غذایی و سلامت روان خانوار بارویکرد شبیه سازی مبتنی بر عامل

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

2 دانشکده علوم اجتماعی و اقتصاد، دانشگاه الزهرا (س)، تهران، ایران

چکیده

مقدمه و هدف: تورم و بی ثباتی قیمت موادغذایی بیش از هرچیز گروه های کم درآمد را تحت تأثیر قرارداده و سبب حذف گروه های غذایی ضروری در خانوارهای این گروه درآمدی شده است. بررسی تغییرات رفتار خانوار در مواجهه با افزایش قیمت نان می تواند به سیاستگذاران در قیمت گذاری صحیح این کالا کمک کند.
مواد و روش ها: در این مطالعه ابتدا به تخمین کشش قیمتی نان با استفاده از سیستم نقاضای ایده آل پرداخته می شود. سپس، بر اساس نتایج حاصل از رفتار خانوارها، به شبیه سازی تغییر رفتار خانوار در مواجهه با افزایش قیمت نان با رویکرد شبیه سازی مبتنی بر عامل پرداخته می شود. محاسبات کشش تقاضا بر اساس داده های پیمایش هزینه-درآمد خانوار برای سال‌های 1395 و 1397 (بیش از 18000 خانوار) انجام شده و شبیه سازی اثرات افزایش قیمت نان با تعریف 5000 عامل ( خانوار) و در محیط نت لوگو انجام می شود.
نتایج: افزایش قیمت نان سبب افزایش 33 درصدی در هزینه های نان بیستک اول درآمدی شده که مؤید گیفن بودن این کالا برای این گروه است. پس از افزایش قیمت نان، بار هزینه تورم نان بر بودجه در بیستک اول بیش از 5 برابر بیستک پنجم است.
نتیجه گیری: افزایش سهم نان پس از افزیش قیمت این کالا در سبد گروه های کم درآمد نشان از جایگزینی این کالا با سایر مواد غذایی ضروری دارد. این موضوع علاوه برآثار سوء تغذیه و مشکلات ناشی از آن، به نوعی بیانگر ضرورت پرهیز از دستکاری قیمت نان می باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The effect of instability of bread price on household food security and mental health using agent-based simulation approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Zeinab Vaez Mahdavi 1
  • Hossein Raghfar 2
  • Karim Emami Jeze 1
  • Kamran Haji Nabi 2
1 Faculty of Management and Economics, Islamic Azad University Science and Research branch, Tehran, Iran
2 Faculty of Social Sciences and Economics, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Background and Objective: Inflation and instability in food prices have affected low-income groups more than others and have resulted in the elimination of essential food groups in this type of households. Considering the changes in household’s behavior in the case of rising bread prices can help policymakers in the pricing of this product.
Materials and Methods: In this study, the price elasticity of bread is estimated by the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS). Then, using the results obtained, the change in household behavior in the case of rising bread prices is simulated with an agent-based simulation approach. Demand elasticity calculations are based on household survey data for 2016 and 2018 (for more than 18,000 households) and the impact of increasing bread prices on 5000 agents (households) in the Net Logo software is simulated.
Results: The increase in the bread price has led to a 33% increase in the lowest quintile expenditures, which confirms that this product is a Giffen good for this group. Following the increase in the bread price, the burden of bread inflation on the budget in the first income quintile is more than 5 times of that of the fifth.
Conclusion: Following the increase in the bread price, the increased share of bread in the basket of low-income groups, indicates the substitution of this good for other essential food items. This point, in addition to the impacts of malnutrition and their consequences, bring the policymakers attention to critical point of not to manipulate the price of bread.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • agent-based simulation
  • bread inflation
  • bread demand
  • malnutrition
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