Daneshvar Medicine

Daneshvar Medicine

The effect of instability of bread price on household food security and mental health using agent-based simulation approach

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Zeinab Vaez Mahdavi 1
Hossein Raghfar 2
Karim Emami Jeze 1
Kamran Haji Nabi 1
1 Faculty of Management and Economics, Islamic Azad University Science and Research branch, Tehran, Iran
2 Faculty of Social Sciences and Economics, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran
10.22070/daneshmed.2021.15354.1139
Abstract
Background and Objective: Inflation and instability in food prices have affected low-income groups more than others and have resulted in the elimination of essential food groups in this type of households. Considering the changes in household’s behavior in the case of rising bread prices can help policymakers in the pricing of this product.
Materials and Methods: In this study, the price elasticity of bread is estimated by the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS). Then, using the results obtained, the change in household behavior in the case of rising bread prices is simulated with an agent-based simulation approach. Demand elasticity calculations are based on household survey data for 2016 and 2018 (for more than 18,000 households) and the impact of increasing bread prices on 5000 agents (households) in the Net Logo software is simulated.
Results: The increase in the bread price has led to a 33% increase in the lowest quintile expenditures, which confirms that this product is a Giffen good for this group. Following the increase in the bread price, the burden of bread inflation on the budget in the first income quintile is more than 5 times of that of the fifth.
Conclusion: Following the increase in the bread price, the increased share of bread in the basket of low-income groups, indicates the substitution of this good for other essential food items. This point, in addition to the impacts of malnutrition and their consequences, bring the policymakers attention to critical point of not to manipulate the price of bread.
Keywords
Agent-based simulation
Bread inflation
Bread demand
Malnutrition
  1. Abdullahi Hussein AP. Nutritional problems in school ages. Cultural and Research Journal Olives 2008; 2:24.
  2. Yazdanparast B. Effect of health education in primary school students of nutrition behavior change, health education master's theses. Tarbiat Modarres University 2008.
  3. Marambio M, Ivanovic D. Nutrition and education: educational achievement and anthropometric parameters of children elementary and high school graduates. Nutrition Reports International 2003; 39:983-993.
  4. Fazeltabar Malekshah A, Pourshams A, Yazdani J, KayediMajd S, Goglani G, Salahi R, et al. Assessment of food consumption pattern and nutritional risk factor of squamous cell carcinoma in the high incidence area of golestan province. Govaresh 2008;12(4):239-43.
  5. Abdi F,  Atarodi KZ, Mirmiran P, Esteki T. Surveying global and Iranian food consumption patterns: A review of the literature. Journal of Applied Biological Sciences 2015;5(2).
  6. Ikuemonisan E, Ajibefun I, Mafimisebi TE. Food price volatility effect of exchange rate volatility in nigeria. Review of Innovation and Competitiveness: A Journal of Economic and Social Research 2018;4(4):23-52.
  7. Abdollahi F. Agricultural Promotion and Development in Iran. Journal of Social Sciences 2003;1(21): 31-65.
  8. Dini Torkamani, Pahlevani. The effect of bread subsidy removal on wheat supply. Journal of Business Research 1996;1(1): 62-147.
  9. Alexandratos N, Bruinsma J, Boedeker G, Schmidhuber J, Broca S, Shetty P, et al. World agriculture: Towards 2030/2050. Interim report. Prospects for food, nutrition, agriculture and major commodity groups. ESA Working Paper 2012; 12-03.
  10. Vaez Mahdavi Z, Raghfar H, Emami Jaza K, Haji Nabi K. Estimating food demand in income groups in Iran. Social Welfare Quarterly 2021; 21(81):185-205.
  11. Islamic Consultative Assembly Research Center, Review of the budget bill of 1400 for the whole country 4. The picture of Iran's economy and its perspective on the eve of the approval of the budget bill of 1400,Tehran.
  12. Salem AA, Zamani R, Faghihi NS. The effect of socio-economic variables on bread demand using AIDS model. Economic Research Review 2019; 19(74), 81-110.
  13. Hasani Parsa E, Mehrara M. Investigating the effects of increasing food prices on the welfare of urban households in Iran. Majlis and Rahbord 2020;27(104):323-349.
  14. Karimi S, Rasekhi  S, Ehsani M. Investigating the demand for subsidized food items in urban areas of Iran using the AIDS model. Journal of Economics Research 2009; 13(39):147-166.
  15. Revoredo-Giha C, Lamprinopoulou-Kranis C, Toma L, Leat PM, Kupiec-Teahan B, et al. Bread prices, consumption and nutrition implications for scotland: A regional analysis using supermarket scanner data 2009.
  16. Gilbert N. The idea of agent-based modeling. Nigel Gilbert (Hg.): Agent-Based Models. London: Sage 2008:1-20.
  17. Vaez Mahdavi MR. Hunger and malnutrition. First Report of Iranian Social Status (2009-2001), Rahman Institution 2011.
  18. www.tradingeconomics.com/iran/food-inflation [Access at: 2021/01/21].
  19. Jadad AR, O’grady L. How should health be defined?. British Medical Journal Publishing Group 337 :a2900.
  20. Kawachi I. Income inequality and health. Social epidemiology. London: Oxford University Press; 2000:76-93.
  21. Braveman P, Gottlieb L. The social determinants of health: it's time to consider the causes of the causes. Public health reports 2014;129(1_suppl2):19-31.
  22. Solar O, Irwin A. A conceptual framework for action on the social determinants of health. WHO Document Production Services 2010.
  23. Babakhani M. Relationship between economic growth, income inequality and health in Iran: 1978-2006. Iranian Journal of Epidemiology 2009;5(1):9-16.
  24. Carletto C, Zezza A, Banerjee R. Towards better measurement of household food security: Harmonizing indicators and the role of household surveys. Global Food Security 2013;2(1):30-40.
  25. Pak Ravan  M, Hosseini S,  Salami H, Yazdani  S. Identifying the factors affecting food security of urban and rural households in Iran. Iranian Agricultural Economics and Development Research 1394; 46(3):395-408.
  26. Holben DH. An overview of food security and its measurement. Nutrition Today 2002;37(4):156-162.
  27. Hadley C, Patil CL. Food insecurity in rural Tanzania is associated with maternal anxiety and depression. American Journal of Human Biology: The Official Journal of the Human Biology Association 2006;18(3):359-368.
  28. Sapolsky R, Freeman W. An updated guide to stress. New York 1998.
  29. Hadley C, Patil CL. Food insecurity in rural Tanzania is associated with maternal anxiety and depression. American Journal of Human Biology: The Official Journal of the Human Biology Association 2006;18(3):359-368.
  30. Hadley C, Tegegn A, Tessema F, Cowan JA, Asefa M, Galea S. Food insecurity, stressful life events and symptoms of anxiety and depression in east Africa: evidence from the Gilgel Gibe growth and development study. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health 2008;62(11):980-986.
  31. Mirzadehahari Z, Mohammadi-Nasrabadi F, Eini-Zinab H, Khosravi M, Mousavi N, Agasi M. Survey of association between major depression disorder in women and household food insecurity. Iranian Journal of Nutrition Sciences & Food Technology 2015;10(1):9-20.
  32. Mohammad K, Hosseini M, Nourbala AA. Secular trends in growth (weight and height) of children in iran over a decade (1990-1 to 1999). Hakim Research Journal 2006; 9(1):1-18.
  33. https://www.salamatnews.com/news/299060[Access at: 2021/01/21]
  34. Alilou F. Measuring food security in Iran and the future challenges. Master Thesis  of Alzahra University 2019.
  35. Babashahi M, Shokri S. Relationship between the amount of subsidy paid to wheat and flour and the per capita consumption of bread in Iranian household. Journal of health 2021; 12(1).
  36. Statistical Center of Iran. Estimating the amount of consumption of basic goods in the country, Tehran 2020. Presidency of the I.R.I Plan and Budget Organization 2021. https://www.amar.org.ir/
  37. Hayat Gheibi F, Shahnooshi N, Mohammadzadeh R, Azarinfar Y. Study of wheat supply reaction model in Iran. Agricultural Economics Research 2009 Jun 22;1(2):91-107.
  38. Kalantari N, Ghaffar Poor M, Hoshyarrad A, Kianfar H. National report of comprehensive plan on the household food consumption patterns and nutritional status 2015;5(2):159-67.
  39. Statistical Center of Iran. An analysis of milk production and consumption in Iran,Tehran. Presidency of the I.R.I Plan and Budget Organization 2021. https://www.amar.org.ir/
  40. Food Prices, Nutrition, and the Millennium Development Goals 2012 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NWm,Washington DC 20433, Internet: www.worldbank.org.
Daneshvar Medicine
Volume 29, Issue 6 - Serial Number 157
March and April 2022
Pages 70-85